So, at long last, John Boehner is finally telling off the Tea Party. After we've all gotten past a hearty chorus of "It's about time," we're left to reflect on what it might mean, both generally and specifically. It's easier to figure out the former than the latter.
Generally, Boehner, who has at least some understanding that deal-making is necessary to make divided government work, has overruled his better instincts and let the Tea Party do all of the thinking for his caucus ever since it took control of the House in 2010. There was at least a semi-plausible reason for doing so: at that point, the TP folks looked like they were the GOP's only hope for votes that could help them peel back the Democratic gains of the previous two elections. In 2010, they actually did peel back some of those gains and that, combined with the continuing disappearance of moderate Republicans, gave Boehner little choice but to let the inmates run the asylum, and hope that he could eventually find a way to harness their energy into productive channels.
Last week, however, Boehner effectively admitted in public that he had given up on finding a way, and the remains of the Republican establishment followed suit. Why was they willing to do this, knowing that it would result in a GOP civil war at a time when all they had to do was let Obamacare fall apart, and reap the electoral awards in 2014?
Because they now know that Obamacare isn't going to fall apart. To be sure, there will be more negative coverage of the health care reform roll-out, because the right-wing press hates Obama and what's left of the MSM feeds on conflict. But that isn't stopping the ACA, nor its long-term success. It is even now possible to think that, in 2014, the ACA could be a net plus for Democrats--or, at worst, an issue with neutral impact compared to other, more salient political issues.
So Boehner gambled. He allowed Paul Ryan to work out a budget agreement with Patty Murray that was, as much as anything, designed to put the political misery of last October's shutdown behind their party. Then he used that accomplishment to tell off the TP's shadow funders, standing up for the autonomy of his caucus members and otherwise acting more like the political leader he should have been all along and less like the bagman he had most become.
Because what Boehner has always wanted, more than anything else, is to be Speaker of the House. He was willing to be a TP spokesman for as long as he thought that was what was needed to stay in the Speaker's chair. But he and his party are getting a different message from the polls right now, one that's telling them to act like grown-ups and find ways to work with Democrats. Because that's what voters really want him to do--in fact, it's probably what they wanted all along.
If that's the general meaning, what are the specific ones, as they relate to national, and progressive priorities? Harder to say at this point. But Boehner's hiring of a former McCain aid to work on immigration reform is a hopeful indication that, at least on that issue, it may yet be possible to make some progress in 2014.
And, speaking about 2014, what about the impact that all of this will have on the elections?
I tend to agree that, given the general trends of mid-term elections and the current mood of the voting public, that a successful tacking to the center by Republicans will likely result in good news for them at the polls. The bigger question, however, is whether the tea-baggers, and their shadowy deep pockets, will let them do it.
As of the moment, that's a great big question mark. It's not really good news when a sitting Speaker of the House decides that his electoral future depends on starting a civil war within his own party. It means that his future, and perhaps the country's, depends upon his taken a leap into a void with an unknown and dangerous bottom.
And that question mark is all the more reason why progressives should organize, contribute and vote next year as though their future, and the country's, depends on it.
No comments:
Post a Comment