It Could Have Been Worse, But Here's How It Could Be Better

I've never had a harder time assessing an election in my entire life.  Perhaps the best way to put it is this:  never in my life have I felt so good saying "Well, it wasn't that bad."

Because it could have been worse.  Much worse.  And it wasn't.  Because of you.  Because of all of you.  Because of us.

Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives, which means that it will, over the next two years at least, be a complete waste of taxpayers' money at best or, at worst, a nightmare that pushes back against the progress that has been made since 2020.  No one should take this lightly.  The incoming House majority is composed almost entirely of reactionary GQP fanatics who would rather burn the aisle than reach across it.  They used the first day after the election to essentially declare war against their political opponents, including Joe Biden.  

And the Washington establishment's reoccurring fantasy of the past seven years still has not come true:  Donald Trump has not gone away.  Even though he is, slowly, slowly (dear G-d, it couldn't be any slower if it tried) being backed into a legal corner from which not even he can escape, he's hanging on.  No one should even begin to underestimate his ability to hang on to the edge of the cliff, long after anyone else would have slipped away.

That's the executive summary of the bad news.  And yet, bad is it is, it's far from the whole story.

As I'm writing this, the Democrats not only held on to their Senate majority, including all of their at-risk incumbents, but have the prospect of expanding their majority by 1 seat, which will make judicial and executive nominations far easier to approve, and to do so quickly without endless GQP obstruction.  Democrats also picked up Governors, state legislatures, and wins on ballot initiatives.

And while the next House majority will be Republican, it will not wield its majority power by a large margin.  Right now, with votes still being counted in two congressional races, the GQP will have between 220 and 222 seats, and the Democrats will have 213.  A nine-seat majority, made up in part of a handful of representatives from swing districts.  Whoever the next Speaker will be, he or she may not be able to prevent some members of the majority from working with Democrats on popular issues.

The red wave that was predicted came very close to washing out to sea.  As it was, it was a tiny splash that left a small puddle, one that may prove to be less unsightly and dangerous than the potential consequences that all of us feared

The GQP and its media allies spent, or rather, wasted an inordinate amount of time, money, and media space demagoguing Democrats and their allies on inflation, crime, and immigration, issues that are time-tested winners for them.  But not this time.

 

All of the messaging about inflation fell flat, which should lead all of us to question what voters really think about which party is more effective in managing the economy.  Initially, it appears that independent voters broke for Democrats on this.  Why?  Well, frankly, economic data has shown time and time again that the economic results during Democratic eras are far stronger than they are during Republican ones.  You may not have heard that said very often by media outlets owned by Republicans (which is to say, most of them).  But it is the truth.  It's quite possible that how independents think about inflation, in relationship to other issues, may differ from the "perspective" those outlets offer.

Then again, maybe, just maybe, it's time to come down to brass tacks here.  Republicans have been lying about all three issues all along.  Inflation is really price-gouging.  Crime is in fact worse in red states than in blue ones.  Biden has already deported potential asylees at a record pace.  Even worse, they know they've been lying all along.  They've never wanted anything but power.  This is precisely why they're planning to use their wafer-thin House majority on nothing but investigations.  If you want more proof of this, look at what is actually happening to prices now, in spite of the lack of a GQP plan to address them.  Does it surprise you that the same thing is happening to the crime rate?  It shouldn't.

What was really on the ballot, more than anything else.  Democracy was on the ballot, and democracy won, hands down.  Especially where it had to: at the state level, in state legislatures.  And this happened in spite of unprecedented gerrymandering designed to make Democratic victories impossible at both the state and congressional levels.  Keep this in mind, by the way, in evaluating the Republican House victory.  It literally would not have happened without gerrymandering.  The delicious irony in the results is that Republicans may have gerrymandered themselves out of better election results.

Gerrymandering.  Voting restrictions.  Dark money.  This is all the GQP knows how to do now.  And while it may help them place bodies in seats, it does nothing for them in the marketplace of political ideas.  The left has had tremendous success in the last several election cycles when it comes to ballot initiatives, and this year was no exception.  In Colorado, a formerly purple state that has become increasingly blue, voters for a tax increase to pay for universal free school lunches.  And there was also real if not perfect progress on banning slavery at the state level.

And then, there's the one thing that should give conservatives and their "religious" allies nightmares for decades to come.  This may not have been a red wave, but this was most definitely a Roe wave.  In spite of all the white men on your television screens and elsewhere trying to convince all of us that women were completely on-board with the idea of the government snatching their bodily autonomy away from them, actual women who voted begged to differ.  It isn't just Republicans who need to heed this warning.  It's Democrats as well, every time their "moderate" itch feels like it needs to be scratched.  It's Democrats as well.  The Roe wave, as I have said, kept Democrats within a few seats of House control, and, given the divisions within the House GQP caucus, may allow Democrats to have effective control.  It also helped them hold the Senate, control of which (depending on what happens in Georgia next month) may yet expand.

And if it does expand, thereby allowing executive and judicial nominations to move forward faster than they have in the past two years, Democrats should have no compunctions about doing so.  There's an opportunity here to use Dobbs to build a progressive majority the way the GQP used Roe to build a regressive one.  The so-called Reagan Revolution was largely based and sustained by right-wing outrage over Roe, and that outrage transformed the Republican Party, congressional races and, ultimately, the Supreme Court, which is no longer a court and does not deserve the label "supreme."  Dobbs has already upended the voting habits of America and, so long as it remains the law of the land, there's no reason to doubt that it will go on doing so.  The only appropriate response for Democrats is to use the power voters are prepared to give them.  Democrats must prove, and show, that they are willing to do so.

Why should Democrats believe this?  Because abortion won everywhere it was on the ballot.  Even in deep-red states such as Kentucky and Montana.  Want even bigger news on the subject of abortion?  It now has the potential to flip even evangelical voters.  They may be ready to flip anyway, now that Trump is exposed for the fraud he has always been.  There are already signs that even evangelical voters have finally had enough of Trump.  And not just Trump either, for that matter.  Time well tell.

For now, Democrats should take their success with ballot initiatives seriously, and use that combined with their wins in state races to see how federalism can work for them, by achieving results at the state level and spend less time chasing the Washington merry-go-round.  Especially now that Republicans have gone to war over the ability to put initiatives on the ballot.  And they have good reason to be fearful.  Here's a prominent example of what a ballot initiative can do when it comes to that big GQP super-weapon:  TAXES.

Perhaps above all, Democrats should finally, and once and for all, end the infighting.  It makes Republicans happy and makes media ratings go up, but accomplishes nothing else.  Attacks on the left from so-called "moderate" Democrats may have cost Democrats the House.  They're engaging in the same futile fighting-the-future that their GQP counterparts are pursuing.  What makes this infighting especially foolish is the fact that progressive Democrats made gains in this election, just as they have in the past two elections.  The generational shift that has been predicted in favor of progressive politics is finally happening.  Fighting it is like trying to fill a funnel with water.

No less a Washington and Democratic insider than Nancy Pelosi, along with Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn, recognized this fact and stepped down from their leadership positions, thereby giving House Democrats to put into place a new, younger, leadership team.  At the same time, Pelosi, Hoyer, and Clyburn will all remain members of the House, allowing their wisdom and influence to be available to that team.  They will, in fact, be able to wield behind-the-scenes influence as never before, now that they are out of the spotlight.  In this arena, they have no equals among the members of the pathetic Republican caucus.  

And no one, absolutely no one, should think that this was about Pelosi's spine, and the cowardly attack on her husband.  The conservative columnist Cal Thomas once dismissed Pelosi as a "San Francisco Democrat" who would be eaten alive by Republicans.  Wonder what he thinks today?

So-called moderate Democrats need to wake up and understand that they're making a major mistake in fighting the progressive wing of their own party, when what they need to do is less reaching across the aisle and more uniting within their own tent.  More and more, voters are able to see the lack of moderation behind so-called "moderate" policies and the "moderate" politicians that peddle them.  They are, moreover, only too happy to punish Democrats who try to sound like Republicans.  

You know what makes more sense?  Trying to support Democrats like Jessica Piper in Missouri, who's trying to organize despairing rural voters in her state--who she refers to as "Dirt Road Democrats," or at least potential ones--to stop giving Republicans a pass on their dismal economic track record in the state.  As she will tell you, it's hard work, but it's absolutely essential work, because Democrats are never going to be able to win a true governing majority without finding ways to flip red states like Piper's.  Likewise we need to appreciate people like Stacey Abrams, who may have single-handedly started the process of turning Georgia into a blue state, and hope that she runs again.  Because the truth of the matter is that there are lots of Republicans ready to become Democrats.  We need to have faith in our ability to cut through the MAGA distortions in our political discourse, meet people wherever they're at, and talk about what Democrats can do to help them.

Because we can go on pretending that we have a true two-party system, and let the system slide down history's memory hole, or we can face the blindingly obvious fact that being a Republican has been reduced to meaning being a supporter of Donald Trump.  And we can then go about the business of saving Trump's supporters from themselves.  The secret GQP sauce is to lie consistently and brazenly about Democrats and what they have to offer, leading voters to vote against them and, at the same time, vote against their own interests.  

We need to counter the lying 24/7, on not just a state-to-state level but a county-to-county level.  It's especially important, in the post-Dobbs era, to reach out to women, far too many of whom still see their interests as being aligned with those of men.  There may be, in this moment, a major opportunity to break through the communications wall with many potential Democratic voters, given what appears to be the willingness of Trump's major media ally, the loathsome Rupert Murdoch, to dump him.

Because maybe, just maybe, we have finally reached the point at which the Fourth Turning has already begun.  If you've never heard of this term, take a look here.  There are, in fact, some signs of it already.  Some members of the religious right are openly advocating violence, as are some members of the secular right.  Murdoch may be willing to dump Trump, but he's still willing to spend money to lie on behalf of conservatism.  Just as Republican state officials are still willing to manipulate voting.  Just as dark money is still a problem.  Ditto illegal gerrymandering.  And do not underestimate the importance to Republicans of gerrymandering:  outcomes in purple states show that fair maps work for Democrats.

Perhaps the biggest lesson for Democrats is the simplest one:  DON'T GIVE UP.  Here's a powerful reason why:  YOUR VOTE REALLY, REALLY, REALLY MATTERS.

And, in the meantime, the Democrats should make maximum use of the remaining weeks of their current governing trifecta.  Here's a good place to start.  Here's an even better one.

We've weathered one storm.  We have it within our power to go beyond weathering the next one, and sailing toward clearer waters.  Let's start getting everyone on board RIGHT NOW.

... AND One Final Point

MAGA Republicans are Trump Republicans.  Whatever they get control of will be used solely for his benefit.  And the only thing he and his followers want to accomplish is to inflict pain on their opponents.

To paraphrase one of his own tag lines:

In reality, he's not for you.  He's against everyone but himself.

The Democrats and their Republican/independent allies are the only thing in the way.

The Case For Midterm Voting (And Whatever Else You Can Do), Part II

And so, now down to hours before the midterms, I come to Part II of this message.  I'm going to operate on the assumption that you have already read Part I.  If not, I encourage you to stop reading here, and not come back until you've read it.  It'll give you useful context for what I have to say here.  In any case, I'll sum up here what I've written in Part I by saying that it gives an overview of the media environment in which politics in the U.S. is practiced now, and how that environment contributes to the existential dilemma democracy in our country now faces.  Fighting that environment, and the damage it has done and continues to do, is one key part of the case I want to make here for making sure that you get out and vote and encourage as many other people as possible to do the same.

This part, however, is equally important, and perhaps is even more disturbing and dangerous.  It's not about the messengers. It's about the message.  In a philosophical sense, it's about the absence of a message, as well as the dangerous political goal that occupies the place where a message should be.

Up until the 1980s, elections in this country, whatever the agendas of the candidates competing in them, were predicated on a fundamental acceptance of the rules of democracy.  Rules for voting in each state applied to everyone eligible to vote.  All votes cast by people following those roles were counted honestly and fairly.  As a consequence, there were winners and losers defined by the rules for elections as well as those of math.  Everyone, even the disappointed losers, accepted and abided by the results.  The winners knew that they would have to face the voters again to stay in power, while the losers knew that they would get another chance to be the winners.

We should all be proud of the fact that it worked that way, and mostly worked well, for a historically long period of time.

We cannot, however, assume that it will work that way this year.  We will be damned lucky if we can get back to the point again.

Let me put it this way.

One of the things that allows the MSM, and other players in our political system, to push for the out-of-power-in-the-White-House party to succeed in midterm elections is that it carries the fairness theme of American elections to a logical point.  In a democracy, even those who do not control the highest office in the land deserve to have some ability to influence the direction of governance in the nation.  If fairness is your political lodestar, the power of that principle can't be denied.  In ordinary times, it shouldn't be.

Again, these are not ordinary times.  But the good news is that, if fairness is your lodestar, there is still a way to pursue it, and make it a reality.

On one side this year, you have what amounts to a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and independents, all of whom accept the basics of government in a democratic republic.  They believe in listening to and respecting each other, working together, and governing their conduct toward one another with fairness and honesty.  In short, you have people who cut across all social, political, and economic boundaries, willing to do what it has traditionally taken to form a more perfect union.  You don't have to take my word for this.  Look at Twitter (before Elon Musk destroys it, that is), and you'll see people from all sides of our political discussion chiming in on the same basic message.  For that matter, look at MSNBC, that notoriously "liberal" cable news network, and you'll see the same thing.

As for the other side?  Well, in fairness to my Republican coalition partners, I won't call it the Republican side, or even a MAGA Republican side.  Since it's essentially a personality cult in any case, let's call it the Trump-DeSantis side.  That should make it clear enough.

And, once again, if fairness is your lodestar, you should do everything in your lawful power to prevent it from gaining even a toehold in Washington.  For all of our sakes.  For your sake.

Why?

I know that your time is precious, and I don't want to do a single thing to stop you from getting yourself and everyone you know to the polls on Tuesday.  So I'm going to give you what in corporate circles the executive summary.  It's still going to be lengthy, because it's as comprehensive as I can make it.  But my hope is to get you and everyone else out the door with everything you need to know.

The Trump-DeSantis party promotes a policy agenda that is recognized elsewhere as being bankrupt.

Even worse, it knows this, and does not care at all, because it doesn't want Congress to make policy decisions on behalf of you and me.  It wants control of Congress for its own sake, to enrich its backers and shaft everyone else.

It is willing to lie about its opponents to get it.  Especially if one or more of the opponents are black.

And the steps they will take?

Sowing division, discord, and chaos to the point of exhausting any possibility of reasoned debate, just as they have been doing for the past two years. 

Making America dependent on a declining resource supplied by bloodthirsty tyrants.

Making it a theocracy where the only right to worship God is to do so as evangelicals do.  Even though evangelicals don't even believe in their own values.  And they certainly are no longer pretending they aren't religious fanatics.

Promoting policies that make their own states more dangerous than blue ones.

And policies that, far from fighting inflation, will actually make the cost of living worse.  Here is one example.  And another.  And yet another.

And, far from giving you more freedom, will give you even less.

In fact, it will enable them to control every aspect of our lives--and yours.

And to deny you any chance of using the right to vote to change any of this once it becomes real.

They are, in fact, actively manipulating the polls to exaggerate not only their popularity, but also the enthusiasm level of their voters.

Even worse, they have taken an assassination attempt on a political leader, one instigated by their own rhetoric, and attempted to turn it into a joke, and perhaps even into a springboard for more violence.

Are you paying attention?  Or are you just skimming through all of this and saying "So what?  Aren't the MAGA politicians going to win the midterms anyway?  Isn't that how this always works?"

Maybe not.  In fact, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, not only about the midterms, but also about what might lie ahead once they are behind us.

Early Dem turnout is massive.  And even the potential "spoiler" vote doesn't seem to be a problem:

And, if you need talking points to encourage others to vote, here are a few.  Recent economic news is better than many had expected, with even the Fed open to slowing down interest rate increases.

And with President Biden using every tool at his disposal to fight inflation, whether that means releasing oil from our strategic reserves or adjusting tax rates.

And with economic growth picking up again.

One final point.

Conservatism in its classical form teaches the virtue of learning from the lessons of history.  A short history lesson here is worth making.  Historians have shown that American politics tends to swing back and forth in arcs of 30-to-40 decades.  If recent trends point in a direction with regard to this, they point to an era to a 40-year era in which we took pluralism and people power off of the American agenda, and put in its place the power of Wall Street, weapons, and a warped view of Christianity that replaces God with Mammon.  And all of us are reaping the disastrous results.

Maybe, just maybe, the course we've been on isn't inevitable.  And, without any doubt, it's not our only choice.  I'm not the only person who feels that way, that our past tells us that this election may have the potential to be a healthy prologue.

How about you?

You have a chance to make a difference on Election Day.  You can help, and encourage others to help, change the deadly course we're on now.  You can do it by joining a truly bipartisan coalition of voters who, even as I type this, are banding together to literally, in the words of the late Senator John McCain, put country first.  Or, by either your actively voting for the Trump-DeSantis cabal, or staying at home and tuning out the civic rubble collecting everyone, you can prove that America was never exceptional in the first place, that it will become one more failed empire clogging up the dust bin of history.

The choice, as always, as I have said before and don't hesitate to say again, is yours.

For the next three days, I will be praying as hard as I can that all of us make the right one.