I've never had a harder time assessing an election in my entire life. Perhaps the best way to put it is this: never in my life have I felt so good saying "Well, it wasn't that bad."
Because it could have been worse. Much worse. And it wasn't. Because of you. Because of all of you. Because of us.
Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives, which means that it will, over the next two years at least, be a complete waste of taxpayers' money at best or, at worst, a nightmare that pushes back against the progress that has been made since 2020. No one should take this lightly. The incoming House majority is composed almost entirely of reactionary GQP fanatics who would rather burn the aisle than reach across it. They used the first day after the election to essentially declare war against their political opponents, including Joe Biden.
And the Washington establishment's reoccurring fantasy of the past seven years still has not come true: Donald Trump has not gone away. Even though he is, slowly, slowly (dear G-d, it couldn't be any slower if it tried) being backed into a legal corner from which not even he can escape, he's hanging on. No one should even begin to underestimate his ability to hang on to the edge of the cliff, long after anyone else would have slipped away.
That's the executive summary of the bad news. And yet, bad is it is, it's far from the whole story.
As I'm writing this, the Democrats not only held on to their Senate majority, including all of their at-risk incumbents, but have the prospect of expanding their majority by 1 seat, which will make judicial and executive nominations far easier to approve, and to do so quickly without endless GQP obstruction. Democrats also picked up Governors, state legislatures, and wins on ballot initiatives.
And while the next House majority will be Republican, it will not wield its majority power by a large margin. Right now, with votes still being counted in two congressional races, the GQP will have between 220 and 222 seats, and the Democrats will have 213. A nine-seat majority, made up in part of a handful of representatives from swing districts. Whoever the next Speaker will be, he or she may not be able to prevent some members of the majority from working with Democrats on popular issues.
The red wave that was predicted came very close to washing out to sea. As it was, it was a tiny splash that left a small puddle, one that may prove to be less unsightly and dangerous than the potential consequences that all of us feared
The GQP and its media allies spent, or rather, wasted an inordinate amount of time, money, and media space demagoguing Democrats and their allies on inflation, crime, and immigration, issues that are time-tested winners for them. But not this time.
All of the messaging about inflation fell flat, which should lead all of us to question what voters really think about which party is more effective in managing the economy. Initially, it appears that independent voters broke for Democrats on this. Why? Well, frankly, economic data has shown time and time again that the economic results during Democratic eras are far stronger than they are during Republican ones. You may not have heard that said very often by media outlets owned by Republicans (which is to say, most of them). But it is the truth. It's quite possible that how independents think about inflation, in relationship to other issues, may differ from the "perspective" those outlets offer.
Then again, maybe, just maybe, it's time to come down to brass tacks here. Republicans have been lying about all three issues all along. Inflation is really price-gouging. Crime is in fact worse in red states than in blue ones. Biden has already deported potential asylees at a record pace. Even worse, they know they've been lying all along. They've never wanted anything but power. This is precisely why they're planning to use their wafer-thin House majority on nothing but investigations. If you want more proof of this, look at what is actually happening to prices now, in spite of the lack of a GQP plan to address them. Does it surprise you that the same thing is happening to the crime rate? It shouldn't.
What was really on the ballot, more than anything else. Democracy was on the ballot, and democracy won, hands down. Especially where it had to: at the state level, in state legislatures. And this happened in spite of unprecedented gerrymandering designed to make Democratic victories impossible at both the state and congressional levels. Keep this in mind, by the way, in evaluating the Republican House victory. It literally would not have happened without gerrymandering. The delicious irony in the results is that Republicans may have gerrymandered themselves out of better election results.
Gerrymandering. Voting restrictions. Dark money. This is all the GQP knows how to do now. And while it may help them place bodies in seats, it does nothing for them in the marketplace of political ideas. The left has had tremendous success in the last several election cycles when it comes to ballot initiatives, and this year was no exception. In Colorado, a formerly purple state that has become increasingly blue, voters for a tax increase to pay for universal free school lunches. And there was also real if not perfect progress on banning slavery at the state level.
And then, there's the one thing that should give conservatives and their "religious" allies nightmares for decades to come. This may not have been a red wave, but this was most definitely a Roe wave. In spite of all the white men on your television screens and elsewhere trying to convince all of us that women were completely on-board with the idea of the government snatching their bodily autonomy away from them, actual women who voted begged to differ. It isn't just Republicans who need to heed this warning. It's Democrats as well, every time their "moderate" itch feels like it needs to be scratched. It's Democrats as well. The Roe wave, as I have said, kept Democrats within a few seats of House control, and, given the divisions within the House GQP caucus, may allow Democrats to have effective control. It also helped them hold the Senate, control of which (depending on what happens in Georgia next month) may yet expand.
And if it does expand, thereby allowing executive and judicial nominations to move forward faster than they have in the past two years, Democrats should have no compunctions about doing so. There's an opportunity here to use Dobbs to build a progressive majority the way the GQP used Roe to build a regressive one. The so-called Reagan Revolution was largely based and sustained by right-wing outrage over Roe, and that outrage transformed the Republican Party, congressional races and, ultimately, the Supreme Court, which is no longer a court and does not deserve the label "supreme." Dobbs has already upended the voting habits of America and, so long as it remains the law of the land, there's no reason to doubt that it will go on doing so. The only appropriate response for Democrats is to use the power voters are prepared to give them. Democrats must prove, and show, that they are willing to do so.
Why should Democrats believe this? Because abortion won everywhere it was on the ballot. Even in deep-red states such as Kentucky and Montana. Want even bigger news on the subject of abortion? It now has the potential to flip even evangelical voters. They may be ready to flip anyway, now that Trump is exposed for the fraud he has always been. There are already signs that even evangelical voters have finally had enough of Trump. And not just Trump either, for that matter. Time well tell.
For now, Democrats should take their success with ballot initiatives seriously, and use that combined with their wins in state races to see how federalism can work for them, by achieving results at the state level and spend less time chasing the Washington merry-go-round. Especially now that Republicans have gone to war over the ability to put initiatives on the ballot. And they have good reason to be fearful. Here's a prominent example of what a ballot initiative can do when it comes to that big GQP super-weapon: TAXES.
Perhaps above all, Democrats should finally, and once and for all, end the infighting. It makes Republicans happy and makes media ratings go up, but accomplishes nothing else. Attacks on the left from so-called "moderate" Democrats may have cost Democrats the House. They're engaging in the same futile fighting-the-future that their GQP counterparts are pursuing. What makes this infighting especially foolish is the fact that progressive Democrats made gains in this election, just as they have in the past two elections. The generational shift that has been predicted in favor of progressive politics is finally happening. Fighting it is like trying to fill a funnel with water.
No less a Washington and Democratic insider than Nancy Pelosi, along with Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn, recognized this fact and stepped down from their leadership positions, thereby giving House Democrats to put into place a new, younger, leadership team. At the same time, Pelosi, Hoyer, and Clyburn will all remain members of the House, allowing their wisdom and influence to be available to that team. They will, in fact, be able to wield behind-the-scenes influence as never before, now that they are out of the spotlight. In this arena, they have no equals among the members of the pathetic Republican caucus.
And no one, absolutely no one, should think that this was about Pelosi's spine, and the cowardly attack on her husband. The conservative columnist Cal Thomas once dismissed Pelosi as a "San Francisco Democrat" who would be eaten alive by Republicans. Wonder what he thinks today?
So-called moderate Democrats need to wake up and understand that they're making a major mistake in fighting the progressive wing of their own party, when what they need to do is less reaching across the aisle and more uniting within their own tent. More and more, voters are able to see the lack of moderation behind so-called "moderate" policies and the "moderate" politicians that peddle them. They are, moreover, only too happy to punish Democrats who try to sound like Republicans.
You know what makes more sense? Trying to support Democrats like Jessica Piper in Missouri, who's trying to organize despairing rural voters in her state--who she refers to as "Dirt Road Democrats," or at least potential ones--to stop giving Republicans a pass on their dismal economic track record in the state. As she will tell you, it's hard work, but it's absolutely essential work, because Democrats are never going to be able to win a true governing majority without finding ways to flip red states like Piper's. Likewise we need to appreciate people like Stacey Abrams, who may have single-handedly started the process of turning Georgia into a blue state, and hope that she runs again. Because the truth of the matter is that there are lots of Republicans ready to become Democrats. We need to have faith in our ability to cut through the MAGA distortions in our political discourse, meet people wherever they're at, and talk about what Democrats can do to help them.
Because we can go on pretending that we have a true two-party system, and let the system slide down history's memory hole, or we can face the blindingly obvious fact that being a Republican has been reduced to meaning being a supporter of Donald Trump. And we can then go about the business of saving Trump's supporters from themselves. The secret GQP sauce is to lie consistently and brazenly about Democrats and what they have to offer, leading voters to vote against them and, at the same time, vote against their own interests.
We need to counter the lying 24/7, on not just a state-to-state level but a county-to-county level. It's especially important, in the post-Dobbs era, to reach out to women, far too many of whom still see their interests as being aligned with those of men. There may be, in this moment, a major opportunity to break through the communications wall with many potential Democratic voters, given what appears to be the willingness of Trump's major media ally, the loathsome Rupert Murdoch, to dump him.
Because maybe, just maybe, we have finally reached the point at which the Fourth Turning has already begun. If you've never heard of this term, take a look here. There are, in fact, some signs of it already. Some members of the religious right are openly advocating violence, as are some members of the secular right. Murdoch may be willing to dump Trump, but he's still willing to spend money to lie on behalf of conservatism. Just as Republican state officials are still willing to manipulate voting. Just as dark money is still a problem. Ditto illegal gerrymandering. And do not underestimate the importance to Republicans of gerrymandering: outcomes in purple states show that fair maps work for Democrats.
Perhaps the biggest lesson for Democrats is the simplest one: DON'T GIVE UP. Here's a powerful reason why: YOUR VOTE REALLY, REALLY, REALLY MATTERS.
And, in the meantime, the Democrats should make maximum use of the remaining weeks of their current governing trifecta. Here's a good place to start. Here's an even better one.
We've weathered one storm. We have it within our power to go beyond weathering the next one, and sailing toward clearer waters. Let's start getting everyone on board RIGHT NOW.
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