Tomorrow is the first day of August, in a year with midterm elections coming up in the fall, and with the Democrats in control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
This was also the case in 1994, and 2010. And the midterm results for Democrats were disastrous, as they had to deal in each of those years with the political double whammy of an unpopular President and a shaky economy. Thus, the Republicans are in the position of dreaming about a kind of electoral trifecta, while the Democrats are in the position of hoping that the third time will somehow be the charm.
I'm intending the analysis in this post to be as cold-blooded as possible, so I'll start with the points in the Republicans' favor. In addition to the weight of history, as I've just described it, there is also the fact that the Republicans control a majority of state legislatures, as they have done now for several election cycles. That means that they also control the process of re-drawing the lines of congressional districts after each decennial federal census. Pre-Trump, they endeavored to use this power with some degree of subtlety, uncertain as to whether going too far with it might turn into electoral dynamite they could not handle. Post-Trump? Well, I endeavor here to be subtle as well as cold-blooded, so I'll just say that post-Trump on this subject is a very different story. I don't think that's up for serious disagreement.
As a consequence of that fact, it's expected that national support for congressional Democratic candidates in 2022 would have to be, overall, no less than 7% higher on the generic congressional ballot to outweigh the advantages that control of the redistricting process gives to Republicans. As we speak, the relative positions of the two parties on the generic ballot are nowhere even close to a divide like that.
OK, all of that is pretty depressing. For some of you, perhaps, it's reason enough to throw in the towel rignt now, with only 100 days to November 8. And, obviously, I don't want you to so that. In the entire breadth of American history, with the sole exception of the 2020 election, there has never been an election like this one, where the number-one issue on the ballot is democracy itself. That may very well be true of all American elections for the next few cycles. If we're lucky enough to have them, that is.
But you know what?
In spite of the temptation to practice the politics of fear, given the circumstances as I've described them, I'm not a big disciple of that brand of politics.
You know why?
Well, for one reason, there are actually a few signs of hope.
Such as the impact of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, an impact which we're now seeing playing out all over the county. In fact, that impact may be strong enough that every Democratic candidate for Congress should be making an iron-clad promise to vote to codify the substance of Roe v. Wade, the abortion case that Dobbs reversed. So, at least, says this author. I'm inclined to agree.
In fact, if one goes back to the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives, one could make a case that the nomination and confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, and the then-prospect of losing the abortion protections of Roe, helped to galvanize Democratic voters in House races, while just barely allowing Republicans to hold onto a Senate majority that, prior to Kavanaugh's nomination, looked a bit tenuous. This parallel would seem to reinforce the view that Dobbs may lead to more Democratic votes than would otherwise be cast.
Indeed, as the recent compromise on gun legislation shows, a whole range of wedge issues may not be available for Republicans to use, which is already beginning to open up a schism with the party, on top of the Trump--never-Trump schism that has undermined its credibility and practical ability to serve as a viable alternative in a free society.
And then, there's the quality, or lack thereof, of the candidates running for office. The more Trumpy the candidates nominated by the GQP, the greater the likelihood that swing voters, and even some Republicans, may be repelled by them.
In fact, I would argue that all of the above has led to recent changes in the generic ballot that favor Democrats. True, we're not at that 7% mark yet. But there's no reason to think that we can get there.
All the more so given the prospect now, finally for a reconciliation Democrats-only bill that would be the start of a Green New Deal while providing practical support in containing health care costs. The bill is now being marketed as an inflation-fighting measure. Let's see the GQP fight against that. And them, let's see Democrats talking about it, as well as the other bills the GQP has voted against that would have cut costs for average Americans.
And, at the same time, talk about the threat to democracy posed by a Republican takeover of even one house of Congress. There's a good slogan for messaging when it comes to the messaging battle that is looking for this fall. You can find it here. Share it as liberally (pun intended) as you possibly can.
One final thing.
I said a few paragraphs ago that there's no way we can't make it to victory in November. But there is a way.
If enough of us give up.
That can't happen. It must not happen.
I will close by sharing this personal insight.
I have found, in my own life, that things have broken my way more often than not when I decide that, whether or not things broke my way, I'm going to keep on fighting. None of us always have ideal circumstances. But we always have ourselves. And each other.
So yes, I'm making the pitch to get you to vote, and to encourage as many people you know to do likewise. But here's my ultimate pitch.
No matter what happens on November 8, don't give up. No matter what happens, we still understand the problems, and we have the best solutions. People need, and deserve those solutions. Not giving up may not guarantee victory this year, but it will guarantee victory in the end.
I'm in my mid-60s. The horizon line of my life in shrinking. I've lived long enough to see a lot of good things. I want all of you to do exactly the same.
I hope this helps. I pray even more that it does.
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