Monday, February 21, 2022

The Fault Of Rising Prices Is Not In The Stars, But In Ourselves

"Inflation, huh?"  You might be asking yourself that as you read the above title.  "Why is he writing about that again?  Didn't he just do that about a month or so ago?  Why is he coming back to this?  I don't need him to tell me that prices are going up."

Well, no you don't.  None of us do.  And you're quite right in thinking that I wrote about it a month or so ago; that's because I did, in a more far-ranging blog post.  And I'm not writing about it now to change anything I wrote before.

Then again, inflation continues to be a topic not only at the gas pump and the grocery store, but in the media, and political media in particular.  That's a reflection of what happens when political journalism becomes identical to its cousins in sports and journalism.  Who's up, what's down (or vice versa) is all that matters.  It's all frosting, and no cake.

And inflation shows no signs of abating anytime soon.  A new year and a healthier Christmas shopping season than expected hasn't taken anything out of the steam of the price jumps, or the relentless focus on their potential political impact in this fall's elections.  You have only to look at this article to appreciate both points.

There's a great deal of irony in all of this.  From the relentless focus on prices, you would not know the fact that, overall, the economy, especially as measured by overall growth and unemployment, is in phenomenal shape, even allowing for what will hopefully be a short-term stock market hit due to the Ukraine crisis.  Not even the seemingly endless series of Covid variants has been able to hurt what Democrats have been attempting to promote as a "Biden boom," with little evident impact on Biden's approval ratings.

In short, and again except for the Ukraine crisis and the lingering pandemic, inflation is topic A, and likely to remain so as long as prices continue to rise.  And the Republicans have been doing everything they can to exploit this for their own purposes, pointing fingers at Biden's successful spending bills and attempting to lay the blame at the White House doorstep (and the steps of congressional Democrats).

What they haven't been terribly good at explaining is what they would do about it.  In fact, they've made no attempt whatsoever to explain what they would do about it.  They've gone so far as to run away from efforts to make them explain what they would do about it.  Mitch McCONnell was asked what the Senate Republican agenda would be if his party regained control of that chamber, and his answer was, effectively, "vote for us and find out."  The agenda, in other words, would be maintaining Republican control of power for the benefit of the party's donors, and no one else.  Inflation?  So long as that can be blamed on someone else, they don't care.  At all.

But what about us?

We, the people, once upon a time, had the willingness to make choices and, more importantly, make sacrifices that were need to end fascism and ensure freedom around the world.  In the last century, we did it twice.  We rationed, we did without, we gathered scrap, we took on jobs that would never have seemed like choices in peacetime.  We sent family members into harm's way, many of whom suffered much worse than harm.  And all of us paid taxes, or bought bonds, to support the most powerful war machine in history in its successful effort to save Western civilization.  We proved that freedom truly isn't free.  And not just with our lips.

That's not what America is anymore, and I'm a serious skeptic as to the question of whether it can become that nation again.  Ever since the 1980 presidential election, it has been painfully clear that we as a society is not willing to do without.  The dominant domestic political ideology hasn't been liberalism, or conservativism.  It has been, and remains, consumerism.  Woe to the President and party who fails to see that and religiously abide by that reality.  It brought down Jimmy Carter, both of the Bushes, and it absolutely has the potential to do the same to the Democrats in this year's midterms.  "Sure, Joe, you saved democracy, pushed back against the virus, and got people back to work.  But I'm made about filling up at the pump, and it would never occur to me to find a way to save money on gas."  That would take real effort.  That would raise the specter of doing without.  

The America of the 21st century is not willing to do without. In fact the dirty little secret of the last four decades is that we will have been willing to accept wage is well below the cost of living simply because of the short-term gratification of low prices. One could come in fact, call this the Walmart syndrome.  I had somehow, after that, that as a society we would wise up and do better and, so far, we have not done that.  And, at this relatively late stage of my life, I despair of our society’s ability to do what we absolutely needed to do during both World Wars and what we need to do again right now.

However, please understand that, in writing this, I'm not making the case for throwing up our progressive, Democratic hands and calling it a day for the American experiment.  What I want to make the case for here is to start by taking a realistic look at what we've become.  And then, think realistically about the steps we need to take to have any chance of getting out of this mess.

As is the case with most aspects of economics, inflation is a phenomenon with various causes.  And most of them, with the exception of interest rates, are beyond the control of politicians.  Worker shortages?  Workers, like the people who employ them, will get back into the workplace when it suits their interests to do so, and not a second sooner.  Supply chains?  Basically at the mercy of the virus in other nations and a globalized economy.  Biden can and should be visibly engaged in making a difference with these, but the harsh reality is that there's only so much he can do.  As is also the case with mitigating the impact of the pandemic.

But, if he wants to do something with a real impact, something that would, historically be truly bipartisan, he should find a way, perhaps with the help of historians, to find his inner Teddy Roosevelt and start doing some finger pointing of his own.  Daily.  Publicly.  And, rhetorically, in the strongest possible terms.  I am, of course, thinking about this speech

The malefactors of great wealth from two centuries ago have come back in full force, and are, if anything, more powerful than ever before.  That is in no small part because they function globally, and not just nationally.  And, though they contribute to both of our major political parties, the fact is that they have a preference between the two of them, and it is time for Biden and other "corporate" Democrats to stop thinking otherwise, and stop pretending that we all live in a world in which the difference can be fairly split.  The center, if it exists at all, sits all too cozily in the vest pockets of Wall Street.  It's long past due time to give it a good, swift tug to the left.

It's not like it would be all that difficult to do.  Never in our history has it been more transparent that high prices are not driven by consumer demand and the difficulties in meeting it, but entirely by the lack of political will to stop the malefactors from engaging in malefactions.  Take everybody's favorite inflation poster child:  gas prices.  Are they going up because gas companies are struggling with costs?  Uh-uh.  They are going up because they know no one will call them out from naked profiteering.  Their loyalty is neither to the consumer nor the country.  It's to their shareholders, who are not looking out for anyone but themselves.  Take a look.

And, if he wants to make it even more bipartisan, and make a pass at Trump voters, he might want to link it to globalism.  Make the case not only against profiteering, but for policies that would promote bringing jobs home.  Here's a personal favorite of mine:  loans to Rust Belt states to seed new manufacturing jobs in states that have lost thousands of those jobs over the past several decades.  This is the kind of bread-and-butter politicking that Biden was elected to engage in.  So engage in it already, Joe.  I'm not the only voice out here telling you to do this; I've got company.  As Don Draper is famous for saying, if you don’t like what people are saying, change the conversation. That’s bipartisan too; Republicans do it all the time.

And you may even already have an opening to get something done, something that could help to address profiteering AND globalism while stealing another issue from the Republicans:  the national debt.  If Joe Manchin is at all serious about what he's been saying recently, it might be possible to build back better, bring jobs home, bring the budget into balance, and bring corporations down to earth when it comes to their power, here might be the vehicle to do it.  One, in fact, that might actually allow the Democrats to not only survive the midterms, but thrive in them as well.  There's any number of reasons for being skeptical about Manchin's sincerity about this; he could have made a proposal like the current one months ago, so why now?  Doesn't matter.  Even if he's bluffing, Democrats and progressives should get to work with him on a deal and get it put together within a month, and on Biden's desk shortly after that.  It might be their last hope.  It might be everyone's last hope.

In the end, whether we get their by sacrificing, or get there by fighting the real enemy, we are the ones who have the power to determine whether we get there at all.  Power does not trickle down.  Power rises up.  We're the ones who have to rise.

I pray that we will get there in time.  I worry that we won't.  Whoever reads this, and shares this, please do everything in your power to prove me wrong.  Washington won't save us.  Only we can save ourselves.

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