Sunday, August 24, 2014

The Polls of August: More Mischief Than Movement

Julius Caesar may have needed to beware the ides of March but, for us in modern times, it's the month of August that needs to keep us on our toes. Yes, August, the month during which most of the world goes to sleep.  Except, of course, for those who mean political mischief.  It is no accident that the lead-up to both World Wars occurred in August, when Yugoslav nationalists plotted to assassinate an Austrian nobleman and his wife, and Hitler plotted to invade Poland.  Deeds of this nature are always easier to carry out when everyone else is on holiday and thinks, for a few fleeting moments, that all is right with the world.

Without meaning to draw exact comparisons, August has also been the month during which, in election years, Republicans have found political gold in behind-the-scenes dirty work.  And Democrats, often resting on misplaced overconfidence, have frequently joined everyone else at the beach, and let themselves be caught napping.  One of the best (or worst) examples of this occurred in August of 1988, when Michael Dukakis was sitting on a double-digit lead over George H.W. Bush, and suddenly found himself fending off rumors (planted by Lee Atwater) than he had seen a psychiatrist.  Dukakis, by taking the month off to rest up for the fall campaign, effectively created a news void, one that the opposition swiftly filled.  And, speaking of swift, much the same thing happened to John Kerry 16 years later, when he went body surfing while his military record was slimed , in part by people who had never put on a uniform.

Barack Obama is not Michael Dukakis or John Kerry.  And the Democrats have learned a thing or two from their own history over the years.  But neither of those facts mean that the Republicans aren't going to try to make mischief during August.  As has been the case over the past few election cycles, their weapon of choice:  opinion polls.  Once upon a time, opinion polls were conducted independently and with complete statistical rigor, so that everyone--the parties and the public--had every reason to trust the results.  But, in the Fox News age, neither independence nor statistical rigor applies.

Consider Rasmussen Reports, for example.  For years, RR has manipulated their numbers to inflate the leads for Republican candidates, then dialed back those results as the election date grew closer so that the final result was statistically "accurate."  That way, during the campaign, they allow themselves to be used as a Republican campaign tool, but almost always are in a position to tout their "accurate" final results.  Consider further Fox News on Election Night 2012, when its statistical analysts were predicting a Romney "landslide," with Minnesota leading the way.  As George Will would say, "Ahem."

And then take a look at current results of polls for the generic Congressional ballot.  Per Rasmussen, it's a tie; per Fox, the Democrats have a 7-point lead.  True, they're not polling exactly the same universe; the Rasmussen poll was conducted among "likely" voters, while the Fox poll was based on registered voters.  But even that fact demonstrates the ability of pollsters to manipulate results.  And, even taking that difference into account, a seven-point difference can't be created without additional manipulation.  (Incidentally, I liked the fact that I got a right-wing pop-up ad when I logged onto the Rasmussen site a few minute ago.  Think that's a sign of their impartiality?)

My guess is that Fox is trying to frighten its audience (right-wing voters)with the prospect of living under neo-socialist rule, while Rasmussen is trying to give its higher-end audience of right-wing pundits and campaign managers ammunition for the campaign trail.  And they're counting on no one paying enough attention to notice or care about the difference.  My advice, to progressives:  don't find despair or comfort in either poll.  Take to heart the old adage that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.

And, in the meantime, ignore media hysteria about polls like this, which are geared solely along Rasmussen-type lines.  Take this advice, from FiveThirtyEight.  And organize, donate, and vote.  Don't let the polls of August become the reality of the next two years.

UPDATE, 08/25/14:  Nate Silver weighs in on the subject of polling today.  Personally, I think he's underestimating the role that cheating plays.

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