Friday, August 22, 2014

A Lame Duck Can't Be Bullied; Why 2014 Will NOT Be 1994

Well, I suspect all of you have been reading the same polls I've been reading.  Especially since, in my case, I read them daily, from several different places on the Web.  And, if you're on the same side of the fence as me, the view of the U.S. Senate's future is not encouraging.

Consider this article, from FiveThirtyEight.  Like most pollsters, it assumes that Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia will flip to the GOP.  Like most pollsters, it notes that there are otherwise six currently blue Senate seats with races that are too close to call.  If the analysis of Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia is correct, and the GOP merely takes half of those six seats, Harry Reid will not be the majority leader in the next Congress.  A 50-50 split of the statistical ties is a fairly likely outcome, even without polls showing a "wave" election (which, so far, they do not).  Of course, the stipulation here is that the GOP has to hold on to all of its seats.  But this seems increasingly likely, now that Georgia is reverting to true red form, and despite the tantalizing possibility that, come next year, there could be a little less wrong with Kansas.

So it may be time for progressives to confront the possibility of Barack Obama facing the last two years of his Administration with an all-Republican Congress.  The possibility, not the guarantee.  But the possibility nonetheless.  If that happens, how much should we worry?

When it comes to executive appointments, a lot.  I doubt that Obama will be able to get so much as an under-Secretary or an island-nation ambassador confirmed by a body under the control of Mitch McConnell (or John Cornyn, should Alison Grimes be the giant-killer I hope she is).  When it comes to budgetary politics, somewhat less.  McConnell has spent some time lately strutting up and down the political runway like the second coming of Blaze Starr, tossing off promises of shutting down the government so he can take Obama to his own personal woodshed.  But ... well, you know how well that worked out before.  Still, the budget process is often the birthplace of some ugly compromises.  Remember the sequester?  Something like that could be in the offing.

But only up to a point, and that brings me to my main point.  Barack Obama will be a lame duck.  And a lame duck, especially one as smart as Obama, is in no position to be bullied.

To be sure, any legislation Obama proposes will go nowhere.  But, for the most part, the same fate will await any bill that the GOP Congress passes--if they can agree on bills to pass, that is.  Obama could look at the stimulus, Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, removing the troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, DACA, and the successful promotion of green energy, and say "That's my legacy.  Here are some nice vetoes to pass around the caucus.  Have a nice day, John and Mitch."

Or, he could do more.  Much more.  His recent track record on regulations regarding carbon emissions, and his prospective administrative actions on behalf of immigrants, suggest that he's prepared to do more.  Much more.  And even though administrative actions do not have the same level of permanence that legislation has, they help to create a new status quo--one that even the Tea Party would have a hard time changing even if 2016 is an all-GOP year.

In any case, Barack Obama is not in the position that Bill Clinton was in 1994.  He does not need to prove himself a "centrist" to win re-election.  He is not prone to "bimbo" eruptions.  He is not the president of a country still pining away for the misty-eyed charms of Ronald Reagan.  Reagan has been gone from the political landscape for a quarter-century.  This is a different age.  And Obama's current place in it, approval ratings notwithstanding, is a far less vulnerable one than Clinton's in the Age of Newt.

For these reasons, I believe that a GOP Congress in 2015 and 2016 might be something we can survive.  It might even help us flourish, if Obama's actions are big enough and GOP divisions and mistakes are big enough to help set the stage for Hilliary in 2016.

And, in any event, it's not over until it's over (thanks, Yogi).  Any number of reasons exist to think that a GOP Congress is not inevitable.  And all of them depend on you.  I leave you to take it from there.  I'm hoping that you do.

No comments: