The "Plexiglass Effect" In Politics

Many years ago, back when Bill James began publishing his Baseball Abstracts, he wrote in one of them about what he called "the plexiglass effect."  This referred to the case of a play who statistically overachieved in one season, then underachieved the following season and thereby brought his overall statistical performance back to where it had been before either season.  In effect, the player's statistical performance "snapped back" like a piece of plexiglass that had been bent too much in one direction.

I've thought for some time that their is something of a "plexiglass effect" in our nation's politics--or, at least, the application of the Newtonian principle that "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."  The New Deal era gave way to the Eisenhower-Nixon-McCarthy era, which in turn gave way to the liberal explosion in the 1960s, which generated a backlash into Nixon and Reagan ... well, you get the idea.  It is why, when you graph progressive progress (and human progress generally, outside of politics), you end up with a jagged line rather than a straight one.

What's the relevance of all of this today?  Simply this.  The past twenty-five years in our national politics has seen a slow but steady march toward the left--two Democratic Presidents, three additional Democratic justices on the Supreme Court, and a Congress that has see-sawed between the parties but still managed to enact major reforms in health care and financial regulation.  And make no mistake:  it has made the other side mad as hell.  Which is why they have used the short-term advantage we gave them in 2010 by staying home to push us back as hard as they can on every issue--abortion, gun control, climate change, worker's rights, you name it.

But they are doing this in the face two overwhelming Democratic victories in the past three national elections, betting that somehow, the "failure" of Obamacare will solve all of their political problems.  It is the only card they have to play.  And what if it isn't theirs to play in the end?  What if (as I think) Obamacare isn't the massive failure they expect it to be?  What if the so-called "passion gap" isn't closed against them by their own actions in outraging women, minorities, union workers, environmentalists--in short, the real majority in today's politics?

The harder they push in one direction, the harder the backlash will be against them in 2014 and beyond.  If I were a Republican (I should be so unlucky), I'd worry about the great big slap in the face I'm going to get when the political plexiglass snaps back from the other direction--the one toward which the American people are marching.