By now, I imagine you've seen the same depressing drumbeat I've been seeing in the corporate media. The Democrats will lose the Senate in 2014. They have the majority of incumbents up for re-election. Many of those incumbents are in red states, and three of them have already abandoned their seats. The president's party always loses Congressional seats in mid-term elections, and Obama's ratings are in the tank. Most of all is the eerie specter of Obamacare around the corner, ready to unleash its socialistic harm upon an unsuspecting America.
Don't believe any of it. First and foremost, this is all coming from the corporate media, the folks who like to reduce politics to a who's-up-who's-down sport, the better to obfuscate the real issues that might actually make people mad at their corporate masters. They want to be able to show pictures of Obama so frustrated he's about to cry, while the solidly Republican Congress convenes another historic impeachment proceeding (although, if we're going to have those proceedings every time we have a Democratic President, they're going to become less and less historic).
Okay, so that's something of an ad hominem (maybe an ad medium) argument. Let's take a look at some facts.
First, there's the incumbent/red state argument. As things stand right now, no blue-state Senatorial incumbents are in danger of losing. Iowa, the one blue state where an incumbent has stepped down, appears to be in no danger of changing colors. (Iowa, by the way, which sent Republican Charles Grassley back to the Senate in 2012, has a history of splitting the difference when it comes to the partisan identity of its Senators, a point I'll come back to in a moment.) As for New Jersey, it has a Republican Senator as a placeholder for the late Frank Lautenberg, thanks to the self-serving efforts of Governor Fatslob (er, Christie). But he is more than likely to be replaced by highly popular Democrat Cory Booker in a few months.
Republicans, who otherwise have 45 seats currently in the Senate, would then need a net pickup of 6 seats in order to take control of it, given that a 50-50 split would be broken by the Democratic Vice President, Joe Biden as Senate President. That means they would need to pick up at least six out of seven current Democratic Senate seats from red states in order to take control of the chamber. The seven states, in alphabetical order, are Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. It would only take a firewall of two incumbents to stop any Republican takeover--and I can tell you right now (knocking on wood) that Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan are going to form that firewall (and more on why in a moment). And they are very likely to be joined by Tim Johnson's successor, given South Dakota's history (a la Iowa) of ensuring itself bipartisan reputation in the Senate. The other four? Tossups, with the possible exception of West Virginia, where it appears that the Republicans will have the stronger candidate.
And here's the kicker. Republicans will need that six-seat red-state pick up while holding on to every single seat they currently hold. That's no longer a given, when you look at Kentucky and Georgia, where suddenly the Democrats have fielded strong candidates while the Republicans will be tearing themselves apart with primary battles. (Ah, Mitch McConnell, you've REALLY earned this one!)
Then there's the voter math. A net switch of six seats in the Senate would require the voter profile of a wave election, one in which the Republicans were up by six to eight points in generic polls. I don't know about you, but I follow the generic polls pretty closely, and I haven't seen a single one that gives the Republicans anything even close to that kind of lead. In fact, most of them don't give the GOP any lead at all, with the possible exception of Rasmussen (whose "reputation" speaks for itself). As for Obama, he's not going to be on the ballot and, as bad as his approval ratings are, Congress' ratings are worse. At least the President's ratings are well into double digits. And the prognosis for Republicans gets even worse when you look at their prospects among specific key voter groups: women, the elderly, evangelicals and even their own registered voters. Women voters, in particular, will help to keep the Senate Democratic, which I believe will translate into good news for Landrieu, Hagan, and the Democratic challengers in Kentucky and Georgia.
Ah, yes, but Obamacare! That will save the Republicans and put them over the top! It's a socialistic nightmare! It's Stalin with a stethoscope! I mean, it's not like it's going to reduce premiums for health insurance in some of the most expensive markets in the country--Oh, wait! But that doesn't matter. The Obama White House is so completely staffed with nincompoops that they won't be able to roll out reform next year! Right? RIGHT? Wrong.
Don't believe the corporate media and their lies. The Democrats may lose Senate seats, but not control. And I'm not sure they won't pick up one or two. In fact, given the currently dismal standing of Republicans, I'm not sure that the Democrats couldn't turn next year into a wave election that benefits them. All they have to do is talk about socialism for the rich, but not the poor, as embodied in the House farm bill, and they might be able to bring Tea Partiers and the Occupy movement together. It could then be the House that flips.
In any case, sorry, Repubs. Next year is not your year. And your friends in the corporate media can't make it so.
UPDATE, 7/30/13: See what I mean?
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