Thursday, August 5, 2010

... And Something To Start August Off With Three Cheers!

Sometimes, the good guys win.  Or, should I say, good gays and lesbians?  Actually, all of us win when we are required to treat each other equally.

The consensus seems to be that this will sail through the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals (the country's most liberal circuit), and go on to a battle before the Supreme Court, with the outcome dependent upon the thinking of Justice Anthony Kennedy.  Kennedy, in turn, has sided with supporters of gay rights in several previous SCOTUS decisions.

I agree with the thinking as it relates to the 9th Circuit.  But I don't think that the Supremes are going to touch this one at all.  The decision is very much controlled by the findings of fact, giving even the Roberts Court very little wiggle room in fashioning an outcome.  And, given Kennedy's proclivities in similar cases, the last thing this Court wants to do is give him an opportunity to support a majority decision in favor of expanding gay rights.  I think they would prefer to wait until the can get a case that is not limited to the constitutionality of Proposition 8, but instead raises the broader question of whether gay marriage under any circumstances can be seen as constitutional under previous Court decisions dealing with fundamental rights and the 14th Amendment.  If they get such a case, one whose outcome is more dependent upon pure legal reasoning, they will have more room in which to manipulate a more conservative outcome.

In any event, I am confident this will stand, and effectively end one of America's more divisive cultural wars.  Now let's see what we can do in November to build on this.  But, no matter what, DON'T GIVE UP--IT ONLY ENCOURAGES THEM!

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